In the eyes of many Americans, California is the quintessential blue state. The Golden State is frequently discussed as the Democratic counterpoint to Republican leadership in Washington, D.C., under President Trump. Current Gov. Gavin Newsom ranks toward the top of the list of potential Democratic presidential nominees in 2028.

Newsom will leave office in 2026 because of term limits. A number of high-profile Democrats have jumped into the race to be his replacement. But despite the state’s reputation, it’s not guaranteed that their party will maintain control of the governor’s mansion after next year’s election. Thanks to a crowded field of Democrats with no clear frontrunner and the state’s unique primary system, an outcome in which a Republican becomes California’s next governor isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds.

Here’s how it could happen.

A crowded field creates an opening

Rep. Eric Swalwell, who gained national attention as a key Democratic figure during Trump’s second impeachment trial, formally declared his candidacy for governor late last week. In doing so, he added yet another name to a primary race that was already packed with recognizable Democrats.

Other candidates include former Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, ex-Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, billionaire activist Tom Steyer, California schools superintendent Tony Thurmond and California Democratic Party Chair Betty Yee. Rick Caruso, a wealthy former Republican who switched parties to run for mayor of Los Angeles in 2022, has said he is considering running for governor.

While all these Democrats carry a certain amount of clout in the state, none of them has the star power to be the clear favorite at this point in the race. The one Californian who likely would have been, former Vice President Kamala Harris, chose not to run.

While there are more than half a dozen serious candidates on the Democratic side, the GOP field is much more streamlined. Only two major Republicans — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News host Steve Hilton — have joined the race.

California’s primary system makes it possible

In almost any other state, having a tight cluster of candidates with no clear frontrunner wouldn’t be that big of a problem for Democrats. All those candidates would battle it out in the party primary, and whoever won would go on to face the winner of the Republican primary in the general election. That’s not how it works in California, however.

Rather than having separate primaries, with one victor from each party, California is one of just two states to use what’s known as a top-two primary system for gubernatorial elections. In a top-two primary, all candidates are listed on the same ballot. The two candidates with the most votes, regardless of which party they belong to, move on to compete head-to-head in the general election.

California has held three elections for governor since switching to this system. Each time, a Democrat and a Republican finished first and second in the primary, then the Democrat coasted to victory in the general election. If that happens again next year, whichever Democrat emerges from the field would be a heavy favorite against either of the Republican candidates.

But there is a scenario in which Republicans could secure the governorship in the primary. If Democratic voters instead spread their votes out over several candidates, that could create just enough room for Bianco and Hilton to grab the top two spots in the primary. If that happened, a Republican would be guaranteed to be the next governor of California. Republicans consistently get 35%-40% of the vote in statewide races. If the two GOP candidates split that share relatively evenly, that could create a relatively high bar for a single Democrat to clear if they’re competing against five or more members of their own party.

The race could change dramatically before voters actually cast their ballots in June, but the most recent polls of the race suggest that Democrats’ nightmare scenario is, at the very minimum, plausible. Two respected polls that have come out over the past month have shown one Republican with the largest share of support and the other in third or tied for third. Porter finished second in both polls, but her support has slipped significantly in the wake of a tense exchange she had during a TV interview in October. Those polls were conducted before Swalwell announced his candidacy.

Democrats are aware of the risks that are inherent in the top-two system, of course. As the primary grows closer, low-ranking candidates would likely face pressure to drop out of the race to prevent their votes from becoming diluted. Nearly half of all respondents in the most recent poll said they were undecided, so it’s also possible that one Democrat will become the clear favorite as more voters make their choices in the coming months.

Endorsements could also prove to be a major factor. So far, the biggest names in California politics — including Newsom, Harris, and the state’s two Democratic senators Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla — have declined to come out in favor of a specific candidate. If they do, that could go a long way toward helping all of those undecided voters rally behind one of the many Democrats in the race.